Paris Stock Exchange: Shadow of Doubt

I think he’s a human being: there’s a kind of unhealthy loneliness about bullying the illegitimate stars, sometimes until they get worse. And equity markets are no exception. At the beginning of a stock market correction, the clan of “I told you so” suddenly grows to support the vindicators, the prophets of the Serbs and the commoners. There are those who knew, those who bring out their old economic models or those who promote this or that horror.

The problem in my first sentence is the term “illegitimate”, as there is no precise definition. Even the opposite is true: no one has the same cursor on what is legitimate or not. Let ‘s take an example that comes up so often that I have already used it this week: the course of action Tesla is it legit? If you ask investment professionals the question, some will answer yes, others will answer no. But with an infinite palette of shades. There will also be people who will decide that the course is not genuine but who will be careful not to say so because they have invested in it against all their principles. And those who think it deserves it in the end but say to themselves too late every time and never took action. Others will not be able to come up with economic or reasonable criteria, but will accept the situation as “it is so“or feel like a huge unquantified asset. I’ve talked about Tesla but not going so far. Hermes Enough. And the answers would be no different.

In short, legitimacy or illegitimacy is a concept far too subjective to define where we have an interest in it: there is no universal civil code in finance (finally, there may be a little too much listening to this podcast on Napoleon this week). All of this refers me to a very good paper published yesterday by an excellent Morgan Housel, in which he cites investor Jim Grant. “To assume that the value of a stock is determined by the earnings of one company, discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate, do not forget that people burned witches, went to war on a whim, stood up for Joseph. Stalin and Orson Welles believed when he told them on the radio that the Martians had landedIn other words, the details are not everything, far from it, and the context plays a big role. And more than the context, Housel explains, it is the story that is told throughout this story. , if strongly., has the power to justify something illegitimate.

Yesterday, U.S. markets chained for the third consecutive session in the red. And even if the proportions of the tray were very small, the root causes of reconnection in technology stocks were eliminated. It is in these types of cases that questions of legitimacy and illegitimacy are raised. For example, does the cleaner in U.S. cloud stocks deserve it because these companies have not yet made a penny and are worth billions? Should we be happy that cryptocurrencies are hardened? Do we have the right to consider it funny that investors in a world in a climate crisis are chasing into the oil sector? I will spare you the rest of the list, because you know as well as I do and social media and networks are full of examples.

Even if the legitimacy slider is moving and the numbers cannot explain everything, serious investors know that the implementation of certain sensible rules can lead to a solid long-term performance. This does not prevent slumming, sometimes, with more exotic bets to spice up the portfolios, but to stay within acceptable risk limits, not to say legitimate. This has always worked and will continue to work. The rest is just noise.

Employment figures for December in the United States are the noise of the day. As we know, nutrition has strengthened its grip on the economic situation by planning to reduce available liquidity. Employment is an important signal of central bank decisions, so release at 2:30 pm can lead to disruption. In the rest of the news, Samsung and STMicroelectronics pre-announced their performance for the last quarter. Europe will also have a battery of macroeconomic indicators in the morning. In China, authorities are urging banks to strengthen their support for mortgages to avoid a wave of bankruptcy in development.

The CAC40 lost 0.08% to 7244 points shortly after opening.

Economic highlights of the day

The market is basically waiting for the US labor market report in December (2:30 pm). Previously, it will pay particular attention to German (8:00 am) and French (8:45 am) industrial production, followed by European retail sales and inflation (11:00 am).

The euro sets at 1.13 USD. Gold losing ground at 1795 USD per ounce. Oil is strengthening, with Brent at $ 82.51 a barrel and WTI at $ 80.03 a barrel. US debt maturing in 10 years and rewarding at 1.72% (+1 point). Bitcoin is still growing below USD 42,000.

The main changes in recommendations

• Belimo : Morgan Stanley raises its target price from 420 to 430 CHF.
• Betsson : Berenberg goes from sale to holding, aiming for 53 SEK.
• BP Plc : Exane BNP Paribas goes from neutral to excellent performance by targeting 410 GBp.
• CD Project : Morgan Stanley moves from line weight to overweight by targeting 120 PLN.
• Kentin : Liberum goes from sale to purchase, targeting 106 GBp.
• Swiss Credit : Exane BNP Paribas goes from neutral to underperformance by targeting 9 CHF.
• Encavis : Oddo BHF goes from neutral to superb
• Evolution : Berenberg begins follow – up work aimed at 1130 SEK.
• Evolution : Citigroup continues to track neutral again targeting EUR 40.
• Meaty : JP Morgan goes from overweight to neutral by targeting EUR 30.
• Geberit : Jefferies is still underperforming with a rising price target from 532 to 553 CHF.
• ITV : Morgan Stanley going from overweight to online weightlifting by targeting 110 GBp.
• kind : Berenberg goes from hold to buy, aiming for 154 SEK.
• Lanxes : Barclays goes from online weight to overweight by targeting EUR 70.
• Forward : AlphaValue goes from lightening to accumulation targeting 8681 GBp.
• Novartis : UBS remains neutral with a price target raised from 80 to 82 CHF.
• Ordered : Jefferies is still underperforming with a reduced price target from 780 to 680 DKK.
• Repsol : Exane BNP Paribas underperforms neutral, targeting EUR 12.
• St. Gobáin’s : Jefferies has yet to keep up with a target price raised from 64.70 to 66 EUR.
• Sika : Jefferies stays long with a rising price target from 422 to 441 CHF.
• Three : Jefferies switches from 500 GBp purchase to an appointment.
• ThyssenKrupp : Oddo BHF resumes neutral tracking, targeting EUR 12.
• Trianó : Portzamparc stays long and the target has been raised from 215 to 225 EUR.

In France

Important (and not so important) announcements.

• STMicroelectronics it pre-announces its Q4 results, with higher-than-expected revenue and a margin at the high end of the range or slightly above objectives.
• Ramon Fernandez, Christel Heydemann and Frank Boulben are replacing Stéphane Richard.Orange, according to Freedom.
• Sanofi strategic research cooperation is established with Exscientia.
• AXA it issues € 1.25 billion in bonds.
• French electricity it will close the Hunterston B nuclear power station in Scotland after 46 years in operation. The group is also expanding with the shutdown of the Chooz power plant.
• Air France-KLM It needs to raise 1-2 billion euros this year, according to Les Echos.
• Veritas Office Prescience gets in the United States.
• truck traffic Get a Link down 7% in December.
• Appointments to the executive committee of Conradh na GaeilgeÉadan Ruadh.
• Altamir he sells his shares in Afllelou.
• Do it obtain a favorable opinion from the DSMB on the continuation of a Phase II clinical trial of DNV3837 in Clostridioides difficile infections.
• Eoraplasma announces duplication of contract.
• Colas he gets a big contract in the UK.
• New CEO for Hibrigenics.
• Quantum genome it strengthens its board of directors.
• LDC, ecomiam, Osmozis and obese they published their accounts.

In the world

Important announcements (and others)

• The benefits of Samsung in R4 below expectations.
• Royal Dutch Shell it will continue to buy back its $ 7 billion asset at the same pace.
• The New York Times sports site The Athletic will receive $ 550 million.
• Volkswagen it will launch an electric version of its famous hippie minibus.
• Sales ofAston Martin an 82% increase on its dealers in 2021.
• Game Stop trying to enter the NFT and cryptocurrency markets.
• Wess Farmers API will buy for $ 547 million.
• Basel he receives a new milestone payment from Astellas.
• James Hardie fires its CEO Jack Truong.
• AstraZeneca announcing that its subsidiary Alexion will be collaborating with Neurimmune to develop NI006.
• Main publications of results : Innolux, Sharpness, InPost…

Lectures