Is the trade carried over or can the exchange be calm back?

In this way, prices fell $ 190 and the gaps were below 70%. However, those numbers seemed to be upside down and the trend has reversed sharply over the last few days.

“In theory, periods of strong behavioral gains occur after periods of significant correction. The danger of the behavior is that the dollar will rise”, Confirmed in dialogue with the analyst Ecitoina Ambito, Eoin Pól Albertoz.

The economist argued that the appetite for Argentine assets was precisely driven by short-term operations and not by growth prospects in local assets, which he attributed the “behavior” to “the game of chairs.” “As long as you continue to have your chair, you can create a fake dollar by earning a fee in pesos. As long as you take a profit before the currency jump, it works. The correction of the free dollars we have seen recently is: take benefits ”, he added.

Julius Calcagnino, a market analyst at TSA Bursátil, with this outlet that prices close to $ 190 implicitly showed a real exchange rate close to the mid – 2002 average and that the market appears to be looking for levels similar to those for the conversion . “A priori, it appears to be an excessive exchange rate that indicates high panic or uncertainty,” he said.

Parallel dollar bounces seem to support a number of issues. First of all, the obvious thing is that the acceleration of inflation generates a latency of the rest of the variables in nominal terms.

Secondly, some Doubts over the Government’s ability to meet the fiscal deficit target agreed with the IMF. The Executive Branch launched bonuses this week for informal workers, private households, coin-tributaries and pensioners, to mitigate the impact of rising prices on the incomes of these vulnerable sectors.

Its funding is uncertain. Economy Minister Martín Guzmán plans to raise the funds through local currency indebtedness to the market and by taxing the “unexpected income” of certain sectors as a result of the war. However, financing a monetary issue, which adds fuel to the fire on the foreign exchange side, is a hidden possibility.

At the same time, it was recently known that the primary fiscal deficit for the first quarter reached about $ 192,735 million, a figure lower than the $ 222,264 million established in the extended facilities agreement with the multilateral credit organization.

However, some analysts have warned that the achievement of the objective would not have happened without the $ 122,000 million registered by the National Treasury as current income in the concept of an accounting “gimmick” showing the total difference between debt issues raised in pesos and face value. debts issued.

Third, the BCRA was expected to take the opportunity to accumulate reserves during April, due to the soybean and corn harvest season. Currently, the monetary authority has raised a mere US $ 174 million in net terms.

“From Adcap we were recommended to enter the transport trade at the beginning of March, but already at the beginning of April and after narrowing the gap from 87% to 70%, a growing vulnerability began to appear, due to latent threat. increases in field retention. This week, this vulnerability continued to grow due to concerns that have arisen over the BCRA ‘s inability to accumulate reserves, even in the face of ever – increasing agricultural liquidations.“, he said Javier Casabalfixed income strategies by Adcap Grupo Financiero:

“For this reason, this week we recommend closing the trade. While the gap reduction may have continued due to this time of year, as it did in 2021, due to the huge vulnerability This should not surprise us if the exchange rate gap returns to date, levels of 90% “, the specialist estimates.

Albornoz also expressed concern about “the abusive performance of the BCRA in the MULC in a month of very high seasonal settlements.” “This adds to the issue of energy out, alarm. It is hoped that the BCRA will be able to accumulate reserves over the next two months, or it will be very difficult to meet the IMF target and devaluation expectations will increase ”, he predicted.

For her, from TSA Bursátil clarified that while they see the CER ‘s curve as attractive, mainly in the middle part, they do not recommend selling hard currency to take positions, but implementing flows in it.