He explained that the vehicles are more expensive, in line with imports complicated by problems in global supply chains, restrictions in China, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, which also led to an increase in second-hand car prices.
It should be noted that there was a 21.4% contraction in the import of cars from this year to June compared to the same period in 2021, according to data from the Automotive Association of Peru (AAP). Likewise, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), the increase in motor vehicle prices, between January and July, was 3.87%, and in the seventh month, there was a 2.8% increase in new cars.
“Closed areas in China have exacerbated the situation of high freight costs, making the prices of imported products, in this case, cars, more expensive. The war also affected this market in terms of semiconductors and oil (Russia and Ukraine produce neon gas and palladium, used in car chips). The inflation and logistics issue that hinders the speed or possibility of importing vehicles is expected to be regularized in 2023,” said Carrillo.
For her, Jorge Ojeda, professor at the EPE Business School of the UPC, indicated that it is advisable to wait until the following year, since the inventory of the car is low, which is reflected in higher prices. Likewise, they face high fuel prices today, which requires budgeting for purchasing the vehicle.
“There are not many cars on the market, which corresponds to the shortage of semiconductor chips and freight costs. These issues are expected to stabilize next year, although they will depend on factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is also affecting fuel. The latter must be considered in the evaluation of the purchase, since higher gasoline prices would reduce the well-being provided by the car”, he pointed out.
Another factor, according to him, is the higher rates in the financial system due to increases in the reference rate of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) to control inflation. In that sense, vehicle financing is more expensive (compare rates here).
It should be noted, according to BBVA Research, the reference rate would rise to 7.25% in 2022, although it would fall in 2023 to 6.25%. The second is due to a downward trend in inflation and the completion of the Federal Reserve’s (FED) rate hike cycle.
“Interest rates are going up, and they may not come down anytime soon. On the other hand, it is likely that it will be much more difficult for banks to grant loans in the future, which could, by this point, encourage the purchase of the vehicle to be done more quickly, especially in cases where it is necessary to do that, as for work”, he said.
For his part, Carrillo Acosta indicated that the increase in BCR rates, and its impact on others such as automotive rates, could be a factor that “relieves” the following year.
Similarly, he emphasized that another point to be considered is the impact, on the price of vehicles, of the exchange rate, which is still volatile and at high levels, a situation that could exist next year.
“Before, with a vehicle loan, you could have a rate of 8%, as a good client, but now you may not achieve less than 10%. A higher exchange rate also discourages vehicle purchases, as this affects import prices. In terms of rates, better control of inflation could help. On the exchange rate side, the trend is still unpredictable and will depend on external factors such as Fed rates,” he said.
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