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Despite the rise in exports, the trade surplus would have fallen by 25% in May

The government would have achieved so far this year a total of exports for something more than US$35.6 billion and imports for US$31.7 billion, according to private estimates. With this, the trade balance surplus would be close to US$3.9 billion in the first five months.

The precise data will be known next Wednesday, June 22, when the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) releases the data of the Argentine merchandise trade balance for May.

“We expect the export data to maintain the good level that has been observed (around USD 8,100 M) driven mainly by the components of primary products and Manufactures of Industrial Origin (MOI), which have been accumulating a good performance in the year” , estimated the consulting firm LCG.

The consultant indicated that “on the import side, we expect purchases to continue to show high levels (around USD 6,900 M), driven by greater dynamics in fuels and capital and intermediate goods.”

“In sum, the fiscal result will be around 1,200 million dollars, implying a fall of 25% year on year.” indicated LCG.

The data shows the problems that the government has to accumulate dollars in a year in which exports register historical record numbers as a result of the high prices of raw materials.

Data from the Central Bank’s exchange balance show that in the first four months of the year exporters register a good rate of liquidation of foreign currency, although the entity believes that they still have some US$2.5 billion to bring into the country.

On the other hand, sales of dollars to pay for imports are posting a strong rise, also due to the increase in international prices, combined with the improvement in activity.

The greatest imbalance in the international accounts would be generated by the higher costs of importing energy and services, which historically presents a deficit balance, although this year it deepened due to the sale of dollar credit cards and tourism abroad.

The data is reflected in the collection of the so-called PAIS Tax, which according to AFIP data has been showing growth rates of around 200% real year-on-year. In the last modification of the Budget, the Minister of the Economy, Martín Guzmán, added $74,000 million in higher income from this tax this year, which explains why the government had to go out and deny days ago that it planned to tighten the trap on the cards.

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