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Reserves, bonus and Kicillof factor in the Government’s emergency menu

Reserves, bonus and Kicillof factor in the Government’s emergency menu

Kicillof, Alberto Fernandez and Sergio Massa.
Kicillof, Alberto Fernandez and Sergio Massa.

“Every day we get up and go to bed looking at the level of reserves at the Central Bank. The economy depends on that number but above all, the future is the Front of All”. With this criminality, a high-ranking leader of the ruling party defines the state of tension in which politics depends more than ever on the cold decision made by people and companies, that is, the market every day. It is the implicit recognition of the border that, almost 20 years later, the recipes and epic of the State in almost everything.

He said it after a week in which the massive drain of dollars from the Central Bank appeared to be modest, under pressure from mistrust and greed, although the appetite for the greenback that drives prices up and, of course, that the gap with the officer is still intact. .

The same mediator, who serves Infobae In an official office near the Casa Rosada, he argues that the simultaneous victory of rebuilding reserves through agreements with exporters and multilateral credit organizations could lower the gap and slow inflation. “Now, if the dollars don’t arrive… we better not think they won’t arrive,” says this qualified source, referring to one of the three urgent challenges facing the Government.

Photo files.  People walk in front of the Central Bank of Argentina, in Buenos Aires, on July 29, 2022. REUTERS/Cristina Sille
Photo files. People walk in front of the Central Bank of Argentina, in Buenos Aires, on July 29, 2022. REUTERS/Cristina Sille

The second one, which the interdict is also talking about, was put on the Government’s agenda after the march of the CGT, the CTA, the selectors and the left on Wednesday, August 17: urgent rebuilding of the lowest incomes that have suffered the ravages of inflation. Economy Minister Sergio Massa proposed yesterday a solution that will depend, mainly, on what President Alberto Fernández defines.

The scheme that could be implemented is a diagonal between the demands of the most rebellious and oppositional trade union sectors – which demand a fixed sum for all – and what the organic trade unions propose: that the parity in which the unionized whose main function is to negotiate wages and working conditions. In any case, by paying state salaries or family allowances, the National State must increase public expenditure.

At the American Council, the Minister of Economy said that they are analyzing with companies and unions on the implementation of “two income reinforcement systems for formal workers and, above all, for the indigenous sectors“.

“We have very vulnerable sectors where the peaks of inflation in these months – the highest we are going to live in – can be found in the action of the State, in collaboration with socio-economic actors, for a response or a solution. At the same time – said the Minister of Economy – we are trying to use the family allowance instrument as a reinforcement of additional income”.

Sergio Massa at the American Council (photo Adrián Escandar)
Sergio Massa at the American Council (photo Adrián Escandar)

The Kicillof factor

This is a decision that relates, at the same time and directly, to the third urgency facing the Government: Axel Kicillof factor. In need of financial assistance from the Nation, any move by the Casa Rosada regarding increases in private and public salaries will encourage the request for more resources for the ever-thinning coffers of the Buenos Aires treasury.

“Most provinces will need national financial assistance, but the province of Buenos Aires changes the equation. In addition, some works have already started to be delayed and even paralyzed due to a lack of funds or because the contractors, with the inflation that has occurred, want to re-determine costs. This will also require more resources so that the activity does not suffer,” they explain close to the governor.

The Buenos Aires president has a volatile relationship with Massa. Over the role ofcontroller” some people showed that he is practicing, that Kicillof is an economist who is in tune with the economic ideas of the leader of the Front for All, Cristina Kirchner.

More than a month after her last public speech, the vice president divides her time between politics and the alternatives of the trial for alleged corruption of the public works of Santa Cruz, which causes her great anxiety and anguish. Regarding economic issues and the follow-up measures announced by Massa, listen to the governor of Buenos Aires.

There is agreement on the latest measures. With Kicillof, Massa talked a lot about the debt issue, especially on postponing the maturities of the debt in pesos. Fees too. Regarding the debt to the IMF consider it already”, explains the source.

Beyond these interpretations, Kicillof sent an encrypted political message with the nomination of the trade unionist Walter Correa in the Ministry of Labor of the province. It is the same trade unionist – who has a dialogue with Cristina Kirchner – who marched on August 17 with a strong protest speech about the urgent need to rebuild the lowest incomes.

Days before the march, the leader of the leather union and Mara’s successor Ruiz Malec said: “In 2003, when we came out of the hell that Macri and this Creole oligarchy put us through again, Néstor Kirchner made a decree that restored parity . and he gave a fixed amount to be put into salaries”, he recalled to protect the payment to face inflation, a phenomenon he blamed, not on the State, but on the people he called speculators : “That (UIA president Daniel) Funes de Rioja and his gang stop screaming around, that they are not continuing to raise prices”, he said then.

In the Kicillof government, they point out that there will be an urgent financial need to address the budgetary impact of the national decision to apply a bond on a joint account for formal workers who depend on the State of Buenos Aires. In La Plata they are far from the pessimism of the Casa Rosada: so far the governor has the polls – despite the pandemic and the rampant economic crisis – ahead in image and voting intention. Will that calm be broken with some high-impact political statement?

Inflation and the guilds

The truth is that the August 17th march on the streets is what the polls also show. Inflation is not only Argentina’s main concern, but it is a phenomenon that is increasing as time passes and the re-composition of incomes, especially the lowest and those that are informal, is delayed (in black).

The last survey carried out by the Applied Social Psychology Observatory (OPSA) of the UBA confirmed that inflation is at the top of the answers (86%) when the question is about “the main problems of the country.” Corruption follows closely (73%), but also the effect of the increase in the cost of living, which is the loss of purchasing power of income (66%).

Survey of the UBA Psychological Observatory for the month of August.
Survey of the UBA Psychological Observatory for the month of August.

Martín Lousteau, economist, national senator and candidate for the head of government of Buenos Aires (UCR Evolución) gave an original interpretation of the combination of union march and inflation. “The question is, who was the CGT mobilized against? Who did they go to complain about the level of inflation? When you look at the amount they deduct from your salary receipt that goes to social work and the union, is it enough for what they give you? Could social works handle it better? Could they charge less for union membership? Could they give you more? So they are also price makers? They are making even less my salary too“.

From the point of view of the unions, even if he does not exercise, Facundo Moyano It was the day of the march, the voice, if you need sharper: “The Government must contain inflation, it is its duty. Today we do not know what to sing, what will we sing? Is it not jumping speculator?“.

Survey of the UBA Psychological Observatory for the month of August.
Survey of the UBA Psychological Observatory for the month of August.

And meanwhile, the opposition

If the Frente de Todos begins to show some signs of reorganization and – as economists say – “deflation” of conflicts, Together for Change is the flip side of that political coin in the air. The internal tension brought to light by Elisa Carrió’s explosive declarations against the frontline leaders of the PRO does not end.

María Eugenia Vidal’s visit to Rogelio Frigerio – the main victim and who is preparing a lawsuit against the leader of the Civic Alliance – was a clear position. The former vice-representative also has an open start with Cristian Ritondo, who disputes with Diego Santilli regarding the opposition’s candidacy for governor of the province of Buenos Aires.

Carrió showed in his media raid against Frigerio and Ritondo who want to compete for Entre Rios and Buenos Aires, respectively. In addition, he created a strong political cost to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta as he asked him to nationalize the cranes before losing due to the opposition of Buenos Aires to nullify that opaque business against the interests of the City of Buenos Aires.

The head of the government of Buenos Aires – who decided to act today in Vaca Muerta – looks very much to the down to the territory of the suburbs of Buenos Aires, which is concretized by pure egos and the epic protest of a government that lost, three years ago, to Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández. Is that exactly the photos and videos with Néstor Grindetti (Lanús) and Diego Valenzuela (Tres de Febrero) or are they preliminary work for a fake operation? A phrase that fits the situation is attributed to Ernest Hemingway: “Knowing a man and knowing what’s in his head are different things”.

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