The end of the cycle of Central Bank-imposed Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) increases could be so close to the next meeting of the issuing institution’s council. The Economic Outlook Survey (EEE) published by the autonomous entity yesterday shows that the five council members would apply a 75 basis point increase to the rate on June 7, raising it to 9%, where it would remain After that. meeting and in another five months.
The expert group estimates that the control rate would fall to 8.75% for December, bringing it to 75 bp above last month’s EES forecast.
Carmen Gloria Silva, an economist at Banco Santander, explains that “beyond the rise in the exchange rate, inflationary pressures have increased.” It points to a new break in distribution chains due to restrictions in China and higher international food and fuel prices, due to the war in Ukraine. For this reason, the expert estimates that the MPR could rise by 75 bp in June and another 50 bp in July, to complete the cycle of increases of about 9.5%.
Alejandro Fernández, manager of Gemines Studies, points out that “the outlook for inflation is very damaging and devaluation makes it more complicated”, but affirms that “inflation expectations are anchored and as long as activity continues at Excessive growth is the only way to increase TPM. ”
Carolina Molinare, of the UDP Economic Context Observatory, suggests that if the evolution of the inflation process continues and world growth prospects continue to adjust downwards, the MPR could rise to close to 10% this year.
Sergio Godoy, chief economist at STF Capital, predicts that the final adjustment, of 100 bp, will be made at the June meeting, but that the downward adjustment will only begin – and slowly – next year.
Samuel Carrasco, senior analyst at Credicorp Capital, expects the rate to rise to 9% or 9.5%, while Claudia Sotz, chief economist at Tanner Investments and Antonio Moncado, senior economist at BCI Estudios, favor 9% .
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