AFGHANISTAN AS A DECISION NOTICE OF THE UNITED STATES
The fall of the regime that the United States put in Afghanistan is due to the fall of Kabul and, once again, we will face a situation similar to the old Saigon after the American defeat by the Vietcong.
A comparable situation in terms of the impact on public opinion in America, that he did not consider it a good thing to continue with an episode like this which has a high cost in human life and a high economic cost and which led to suspicion on the military which. proceeding against him and, in particular, the conditions of the same.
The fall of Kabul is more than a military defeat. I do not even want to focus on the fact that the defeat is not only for the United States but also for NATO. By virtue of article 5, the collective defense protocol was activated, which made it possible to dispose of the resources of the other members of this military organization.
No, the issue is the trend the US has shown in recent years, with clear signs of leadership fatigue being assumed by the prosperous People’s Republic of China.
Clearly, the United States fled Afghanistan. Two major powers maintained their diplomatic legions to strengthen ties with the Taliban government, Russia (which extends its sphere of influence to the post-Soviet countries in the area) and China. Faced with this, the Americans close their diplomatic legation, which happens to operate from Doha, Qatar.
Three other countries are strengthening, more or less, their relations with the Taliban: Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. In an international geopolitical context, it means leaving Afghanistan, Central Asia and trade routes (through Afghanistan) in the hands of third countries. Actually, tactics or strategy are not seen here, but obedience without thinking about consequences, internal and external, that have happened.
Biden’s argument (poor, on the other hand) is that he discovered the deal with the Taliban when he became President. Paradoxically, the agreement was negotiated by the wretched President Donald Trump, who came to the Presidency wanting to make America strong again and who, however, was facing international difficulties because on his lack of expertise in international management.
His coups, like the Sahara or moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, are more effective than anything else. Similar things can be said about what happened to North Korea or Cuba, apart from the damage caused by the tightening of the embargo on the Caribbean island.
Politically, it makes no sense to leave Afghanistan under these conditions, but it did not make sense to go in with George W. Bush into that wounded honor attack after the attacks of September 11, 2001. No help build the Afghan state. It only happened with corruption and the fact that his army (those 300,000 well-armed soldiers that Biden talked about) was diluted like sugar in coffee.
There is no reason to refrain from having a volatile relationship with the Taliban regime, even if it is only for the benefit. But also to protect civilians and try to limit the excesses of the application of Arab law. In short, it means throwing these years of effort overboard for the sake of who knows what.
But it is also what it shows, just as the way out of Vietnam showed and the small lessons that were taken from that victory.
From an internal political point of view, the internal situation has a contrast between the Democrats and the Republicans that is not clear from the history of the country. January’s events in the capitol show that the paradigm of a way to understand democracy is in danger, as a result of its poor performance. The reforms show that Obama did not do their consequences and today is not the example they had in the past, no matter how many they had major deficiencies in its electoral system or with the crisis of his constitutional system.
It is not easy to reverse what has happened in recent years. But it is urgent to regain momentum. The consequences are dramatic. It is, after all, what is explained very well and neatly in the book by Levitsky and Ziblatt “How democracies die.”
Politically, the momentum of the American Revolution is subsumed in the power of technical rules. Only the left wing of the Democratic Party, expressed throughout the Democratic Socialists of America, attempted to reopen questions beyond the reach of the State. The collapse of the Supreme Court and the rollback of enforceable rights after Trump’s appointment means the decline of American democracy.
Just as it was said at the time that there was a lack of response from the United States to the inequality and social problems that exist within it. So much so that the interior of the country is already talking about that “we are living in Satan’s Failure”. (Or here too)
The US trade battle, which has not been corrected, beyond the harsh sanctions against China and, within this country, against Huawei, will not cease to raise doubts, even when the strength of some US companies acts as a transmission zone for the White House stands. . Because during this time, two major trade agreements involving Asia were established to which the US is not a party. In the same way, commercial relations with Europe continue to have problems with Biden, which are identical to those that existed before and were expressed on the regime of sanctions.
Today’s recession on the international stage means going back to the period before World War I (in which the USA entered late) or World War II (when it entered after the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbour) . It means not understanding how China is deploying great international activity to acquire raw materials and rare metals (those in Afghanistan, by the way) while abandoning its strategy of establishing itself as the great hegemonic power.
It also means that it is not understood that Europe can wake up from sleep if it articulates an adequate industrial policy, which it lacks today. Borrell recently called for the creation of a European military force because “what Biden said is that the US no longer wants to pay wars for other people and the EU has acted as a ‘Kantian’ power, use of the instruments of peace, the rule, the law, the commerce”. In other words, he proposes to increase the European role against the American recession.
The Afghanistan crisis leaves another big wound, the United Nations Organization. Apart from last night’s secret, what role did he play in the whole Afghanistan crisis?